\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u610f\u5728\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u4f5c\u51fa\u4efb\u4f55\u964d\u606f\u51b3\u7b56\u90fd\u4f1a\u611f\u89c9\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u548c\u6570\u636e\u800c\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u76ee\u524d\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u4e24\u5927\u4f7f\u547d\u4e4b\u95f4\u98ce\u9669\u8fbe\u5230\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u662f\u65f6\u5019\u5f00\u542f\u964d\u606f\u4ee5\u63d0\u632f\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u9010\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u964d\u606f\u9884\u671f\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7528\u300c\u5bf9\u5f53\u65f6\u5408\u9002\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6216\u5feb\u6216\u6162\u5730\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\u8bf4\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e34\u8fd1\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8bf4\u660e\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u6fd2\u4e34\u5d29\u6e83\u7684\u8fb9\u7f18\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u66f4\u591a\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9884\u9632\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4fdd\u6301\u4f4f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u300c\u7a33\u5065\u300d\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u4ed6\u627f\u8ba4\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u4fee\uff0c\u4f46\u4f9d\u65e7\u662f\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u53c2\u8003\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6570\u636e\u70b9\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6570\u636e\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u7387\u3001\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u3001\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\u4e0e\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u3001\u8f9e\u804c\u7387\u7b49\u591a\u9879\u6307\u6807\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u5177\u4f53\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u51e0\u4f55\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u4e0a\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u786e\u5b9e\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u73b0\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51fa\u624b\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u652f\u6301\u5c31\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e3a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u89c1\u95fb\u6574\u7406\u7684\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14 9 \u6708 FOMC \u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\u540e\u8bb0\u8005\u4f1a\u95ee\u7b54\u73af\u8282\u5168\u8bb0\u5f55\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 1\uff1aStrong third quarter GDP running 3% so what changed to made the committee go 50. Andhow do you respond to the concerns that perhaps it shows the Fed is more concerned about the labor market, and I guess should we expect more 50s in the months ahead? And based on what should we make that call?<\/p>\n
\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u7f8e\u56fd GDP \u9884\u8ba1\u5f3a\u52b2\u589e\u957f 3%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\u8ba9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51b3\u5b9a\u964d\u606f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff1f\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u66f4\u62c5\u5fc3\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u6bcf\u6b21\u964d\u606f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u6839\u636e\u4ec0\u4e48\u505a\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e00\u5224\u65ad\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 1\uff1a<\/p>\n
Let me jump in. So since the last meeting, we have had a lot of data come in. We’ve had the two employment reports July and August. We’ve also had two inflation reports, including one that came in during blackout. We had the QCW report, which suggests that the payroll report numbers that we’re getting may be artificially high and will be revised down. You know that we’ve also seen that anecdotal data like the Beige Book, so we took all of those, and we went into blackout, and we thought about what to do, and we cleared that this was the right thing for the economy, for the people that we serve, and that’s how we made our decision. So that’s one question.<\/p>\n
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So a couple things, a good place to start is the SEP. But let me start with what I said, which was that we’re going to be making decisions, meeting by meeting, based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, the balance of risks. If you look at the SEP, you’ll see that it’s a process of recalibrating our policy stance, away from where we had a year ago, when inflation was high and unemployment low, to a place that’s more appropriate given where we are now and where we expect to be. And that process will take place over time. There’s nothing in the SEP that suggests the committee is in a rush to get this done. This this process evolves over time.<\/p>\n
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Of course, that’s a projection. That’s a baseline projection. We know, as I mentioned in my remarks, that the actual things that we do will depend on the way the economy evolves. We can go quicker, if that’s appropriate, we can go slower if that’s appropriate. We can pause if that’s appropriate. But that’s what we’re contemplating. Again, I would point you to the SEP as just an assessment of where, what the committee is thinking today, but the individual members, rather, of the committee, are thinking today, assuming that their particular forecasts take, you know, are realized.<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 2: The projections show that the Fed officials expect the Fed funds rate to still be above their estimate of long run neutral by the end of next year. So does that suggest you see rates as restrictive for that entire period? Does that threaten the weakening of the job market you said you’d like to avoid, or does it suggest that maybe people see the short run neutral as a little bit higher?<\/p>\n
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\u56de\u7b54 2\uff1a:<\/p>\n
I would really characterize it as this. I think people write down their estimate. Individuals do. I think every single person on the committee, if you ask them, what’s your level of certainty around that, and they would say there’s a wide range where that could fall. So I think we don’t know there are model based approaches and empirically based approaches that estimate what the neutral rate will be at any given time. But realistically, we know it by its works. So that leaves us in a place where we’ll be, where we expect, in the base case, to be continuing to remove restriction, and we’ll be looking at the way the economy reacts to that, and that will be guiding us in our thinking about the question that we’re asking at every meeting, which is, is our policy stance the appropriate one?<\/p>\n
\u6211\u771f\u7684\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u63cf\u8ff0\u5b83\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5b98\u5458\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u9884\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u6b64\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8303\u56f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u5426\u6709\u57fa\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u57fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f30\u8ba1\u4efb\u4f55\u7ed9\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5b83\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u539f\u7406\u6765\u4e86\u89e3\u5b83\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u57fa\u672c\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u653e\u677e\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5173\u6ce8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u6b64\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u6307\u5bfc\u6211\u4eec\u601d\u8003\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9002\uff1f<\/p>\n
We know, if you go back, we know that the policy stance we adopted in July of 2023 came at a time when unemployment was three and a half percent and inflation was 4.2%. Today, unemployment is up to 4.2%, inflation is down to a few tenths above 2%, so we know that it is time to recalibrate our policy to Something that is more appropriate given the progress on inflation and on employment moving to a more sustainable level. So the balance of risks are now even, and this is the beginning of that process I mentioned, the direction of which is toward a sense of neutral, and we’ll move as fast or as slow as we think is appropriate in real time, what you have is our individual accumulation of individual estimates of what that will be in the base case.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u56de\u987e\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u5728 2023 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u662f\u5728\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e3a 3.5% \u548c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e3a 4.2% \u65f6\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5df2\u5347\u81f3 4.2%\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u964d\u81f3\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1 2%\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5411\u66f4\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6c34\u5e73\u8fc8\u8fdb\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u65f6\u5019\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u66f4\u5408\u9002\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u5e73\u8861\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5176\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u671d\u7740\u4e2d\u7acb\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6839\u636e\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5bf9\u5f53\u65f6\u5408\u9002\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6216\u5feb\u6216\u6162\u5730\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u70b9\u9635\u56fe\u662f\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u5bf9\u57fa\u672c\u573a\u666f\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 3\uff1aHow close was this in terms of the decision, you do have the first dissent by a governor since 2005 I think was the weight clearly in favor of a 50, or was this a very close decision?<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u81ea 2005 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u6709\u8054\u50a8\u7406\u4e8b\u63d0\u51fa\u5f02\u8bae\uff0c\u964d\u606f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u610f\u89c1\u6709\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 3\uff1a<\/p>\n
I think we had a good discussion. You know, if you go back, I talked about this at Jackson Hole, but I didn’t address the question of the size of the cut. And I think we left it open going into blackout. And so there was a lot of discussion back and forth. Good diversity of division. Excellent discussion today. I think there was also broad support for the decision that the committee voted on. So I would add, though, look at the SEP all 19 of the participants wrote down multiple cuts this year, all 19. That’s a big change from June, right? 17 of the 19 wrote down three or more cuts, and 10 of the 19 wrote down four more cuts. So, you know, there is a dissent, and there’s a range of views, but there’s actually a lot of common ground as well.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u6211\u5728\u6770\u514b\u900a\u970d\u5c14\u8c08\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u6ca1\u6709\u56de\u7b54\u964d\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u9759\u9ed8\u671f\u4e4b\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u89c2\u70b9\u6709\u591a\u6837\u6027\u5f88\u597d\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u975e\u5e38\u7cbe\u5f69\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6295\u7968\u901a\u8fc7\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e5f\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u8865\u5145\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u770b\u770b SEP\uff0c\u6240\u6709 19 \u540d\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u652f\u6301\u4eca\u5e74\u591a\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e 6 \u6708\u4efd\u76f8\u6bd4\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u53d8\u5316\uff0c19 \u4eba\u4e2d\u6709 17 \u4eba\u652f\u6301\u4eca\u5e74\u964d\u606f 3 \u6b21\u6216\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u6709 10 \u4eba\u652f\u6301 4 \u6b21\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u964d\u606f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u5404\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5171\u540c\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 4\uff1a on the pacing here, would you expect this to be running every other meeting?<\/p>\n
\u6309\u7167\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8282\u594f\uff0c\u60a8\u662f\u5426\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6bcf\u9694\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u90fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u6837\uff08\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\uff09\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 4\uff1aOnce we get into next year, we’re going to take it meeting by meeting, as I mentioned, we would. There’s no sense that the committee feels it’s in a rush to do this. We made a good, strong start to this. And that’s really, frankly, a sign of our confidence, confidence in inflation is coming down toward 2% on a sustainable basis. That gives us the ability we can, you know, make a good, strong start. But, and I’m very pleased that we did to me the logic of this, both from an economic standpoint and also from a risk management standpoint, was clear, but I think we’re going to go carefully meeting by meeting and make our decisions as we go.<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u65e6\u8fdb\u5165\u660e\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u9010\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u8ba8\u8bba\u6b64\u4e8b\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4e4b\u524d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6025\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff08\u964d\u964d\u606f\uff09\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u826f\u597d\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u3002\u5766\u7387\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u8868\u660e\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5c06\u4ee5\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0b\u964d\u5230 2%\u3002\u8fd9\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u53d6\u5f97\u826f\u597d\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u5f88\u9ad8\u5174\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89d2\u5ea6\u8fd8\u662f\u4ece\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u90fd\u5f88\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u90fd\u8c28\u614e\u884c\u4e8b\uff0c\u5e76\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u8fdb\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 5\uff1aYour colleagues in your economic projections today see the unemployment rate climbing to 4.4% and staying there, obviously, historically, when the unemployment rate climbs that much over a relatively short period of time, it doesn’t typically just stop. It continues increasing. And so I wonder if you can walk us through why you see the labor market stabilizing sort of, what’s the mechanism there, and what do you see as the risks?<\/p>\n
\u60a8\u7684\u540c\u4e8b\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u9884\u6d4b\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5c06\u6500\u5347\u81f3 4.4% \u5e76\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u5f53\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u77ed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u6500\u5347\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6c34\u5e73\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u901a\u5e38\u4e0d\u4f1a\u505c\u6b62\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u8d8b\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u673a\u5236\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b58\u5728\u54ea\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 5\uff1a<\/p>\n
So again, the labor market is actually in solid condition, and our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there. You can say that about the whole economy. The US economy is in good shape. It’s growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down. The labor market is in a strong pace. We want to keep it there that’s what we’re doing.<\/p>\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5904\u4e8e\u7a33\u5065\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u91c7\u53d6\u653f\u7b56\u4e3e\u63aa\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4fdd\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u6574\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90fd\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u826f\u597d\u3002\u5b83\u6b63\u4ee5\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u53d1\u5c55\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u4fdd\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 6\uff1a\u300c\u65b0\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u901a\u8baf\u793e\u300dNick Timiraos \u7684\u63d0\u95ee\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u8fd1\u671f\u5c31\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u6784\u6210\u8ffd\u8d76\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8fd9\u6b21\u6bd4\u5178\u578b\u964d\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u964d\u606f\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u540d\u4e49\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u671f\u52a0\u901f\u964d\u606f\u7684\u8282\u594f\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 6\uff1a<\/p>\n
multiple questions in every list. So I would say we don’t think we’re behind. We do not think we’re. We think this is timely, but I think you can take this as a sign of our commitment not to get behind. So it’s a strong move.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u843d\u540e\uff08\u4e8e\u66f2\u7ebf\uff09\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u53ca\u65f6\u7684\uff08\u964d\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u8fd9\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u627f\u8bfa\u4e0d\u843d\u540e\uff08\u4e8e\u66f2\u7ebf\uff09\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u4e3e\u63aa\u3002<\/p>\n
I think it’s about we come into this with a policy position that was put in place. As you know, I mentioned in July of 2023 which was a time of high inflation and very low unemployment, we’ve been very patient about reducing the policy rate. We’ve waited. Other central banks around the world have cut many of them several times. We’ve waited, and I think that that patience has really paid dividends in the form of our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably under 2% so I think that is what enables us to take this strong move today.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u65e2\u5b9a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u573a\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u5982\u4f60\u6240\u77e5\uff0c\u6211\u63d0\u5230\uff0c2023 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u662f\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u4f4e\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u975e\u5e38\u8010\u5fc3\u5730\u7b49\u5f85\u964d\u4f4e\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7684\u65f6\u673a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u592e\u884c\u5df2\u7ecf\u591a\u6b21\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u8010\u5fc3\u786e\u5b9e\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u4f4e\u4e8e 2%\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u80fd\u591f\u91c7\u53d6\u8fd9\u4e00\u6709\u529b\u4e3e\u63aa\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n
I do not think that anyone should look at this and say, Oh, this is the new pace. You know, you have to think about it in terms of the base case. Of course, what happens will happen. So in the base case, what you see is, look at the SEP you see cuts moving along. The sense of this is we’re recalibrating policy down over time to a more neutral level, and we’re moving at the pace that we think is appropriate given developments in the economy. And the base case, the economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower, but that’s what the base case says.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5c31\u8bf4\uff0c\u54e6\uff0c\uff08\u964d\u606f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff09\u8fd9\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u8282\u594f\u3002\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u57fa\u672c\u573a\u666f\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8003\u8651\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8be5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u603b\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u57fa\u672c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u770b\u770b SEP\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u964d\u606f\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u5c06\u653f\u7b56\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u5230\u66f4\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9002\u5408\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u524d\u8fdb\u3002\u5728\u57fa\u672c\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u8d70\u5f97\u66f4\u5feb\u6216\u66f4\u6162\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u57fa\u672c\u573a\u666f\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 7\uff1a If I could follow up on the balance sheet in 2019 when you did the mid cycle adjustment, you ceased the balance sheet runoff with a larger cut. Today, is there any should there be any signal inferred about how the committee would approach end state on the balance sheet policy?<\/p>\n
\u6709\u5173 2019 \u5e74\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u60a8\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e2d\u671f\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u505c\u6b62\u4e86\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u7f29\u51cf\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u964d\u606f\u3002\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4fe1\u53f7\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a8\u65ad\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u72b6\u6001\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 7\uff1a<\/p>\n
So in the current situation, reserves have really been stable. They haven’t come down. So reserves are still abundant and expected to remain so for some time. As you know, the shrinkage in our balance sheet has really come out of the overnight. RFP, so I think what that tells you is we’re not thinking about stopping runoff because of this at all. We know that these two things can happen side by side, in a sense, they’re both a form of normalization. And so for a time, you can have the balance sheet shrink, you would also be cutting rates.<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 8\uff1a just following up on rising unemployment, is it your view that this is just a function of a normalizing labor market? amid improved supply, or is there anything to suggest that something more concerning, perhaps is taking place here given that other metrics of labor demand have softened. is do you not? Why should we not expect a further deterioration in labor market conditions if policy is still restricted?<\/p>\n
\u8ddf\u8fdb\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u60a8\u662f\u5426\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff1f\u4f9b\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u9274\u4e8e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6807\u5df2\u7ecf\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff1f\u60a8\u4e0d\u8fd9\u4e48\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5417\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u7136\u5177\u6709\u9650\u5236\u6027\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u9884\u671f\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6076\u5316\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 8\uff1a<\/p>\n
So I think what we’re seeing is clearly labor market conditions have cooled off by any measure, as I talked about in Jackson Hole and but they’re still at a level. The level of those conditions is actually pretty close to what I would call maximum employment, you know. So you’re close to mandate, maybe at mandate on that. So what’s driving it? Clearly, payroll job creation has moved down over the last few months, and this bears watching, meant by many other measures, the labor market has returned to or below 2019 levels, which was a very good, strong labor market, but this is more sort of 2018\u30012017. So the labor market bears close watching, and we’ll be giving it that but ultimately, we think, we believe, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy that we can continue to see the economy growing and that will support the labor market in the meantime, if you look at the growth and economic activity data, retail sales data that we just got, second quarter GDP, all of this indicates an economy that is still growing at a solid pace, So that should also support the labor market over time.<\/p>\n
\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u4ee5\u4f55\u79cd\u6807\u51c6\u8861\u91cf\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6211\u5728\u6770\u514b\u900a\u970d\u5c14\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8c08\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u5b9a\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u6211\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u4e1a\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd1\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6cd5\u5b9a\u4f7f\u547d\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u6cd5\u5b9a\u4f7f\u547d\u4e86\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u5b83\u5462\uff1f\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\u521b\u9020\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8fd9\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4ece\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6807\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u7ecf\u56de\u5230\u6216\u4f4e\u4e8e 2019 \u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u3001\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u5728\u66f4\u50cf\u662f 2018 \u5e74\u30012017 \u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u8981\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7ed9\u4e88\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u9002\u5f53\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u770b\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u652f\u6301\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u770b\u589e\u957f\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u6570\u636e\u3001\u6211\u4eec\u521a\u521a\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u989d\u6570\u636e\u3001\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684 GDP\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ecd\u5728\u7a33\u6b65\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u652f\u6301\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n
So, but again we’re watching, and just on the point about starting to see rising layoffs. If that were to happen, wouldn’t the committee already be too late in terms of avoiding a recession?<\/p>\n
\u8ffd\u95ee\uff1a\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6b63\u503c\u88c1\u5458\u4eba\u6570\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0a\u5347\u4e4b\u9645\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5728\u907f\u514d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecf\u592a\u8fdf\u4e86\uff1f<\/p>\n
So we’re, that’s, you know, our plan, of course, has been to begin to recalibrate, and we’re not seeing rising claims, we’re not seeing rising layoffs, we’re not seeing that, and we’re not hearing that from companies that that’s something that’s getting ready to happen. So we’re not waiting for that because, you know, there is thinking that the time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see the White House. There’s some more on that. So that’s the situation we’re in. We have, in fact, begun the cutting cycle now, and we’ll be watching, and that will be one of the factors that we consider. Of course, we’re going to look at the totality of the data as we make these decisions, meeting by meeting.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u770b\u5230\u5931\u4e1a\u6551\u6d4e\u7533\u8bf7\u6570\u91cf\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u770b\u5230\u88c1\u5458\u4eba\u6570\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u542c\u5230\u516c\u53f8\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7b49\u5f85\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65f6\u673a\u662f\u5f53\u5b83\u5f3a\u52b2\u65f6\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u5904\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u964d\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\uff08\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u964d\u6e29\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u67e5\u770b\u6240\u6709\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u505a\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 9\uff1awhat would constitute for you and the committee a deterioration in the labor market you’re pricing in, basically, by the end of next year, 200 basis points of cuts just to maintain a higher unemployment Rate. Would you be moving to a more preemptive monetary policy style, rather than, as you did with inflation, waiting until the data gave you a signal<\/p>\n
\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u5bf9\u60a8\u548c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6784\u6210\u300c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6076\u5316\u300d\uff1f\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5230\u660e\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u964d\u606f 200 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u53ea\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ef4\u6301\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u3002\u60a8\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u5177\u5148\u53d1\u5236\u4eba\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u98ce\u683c\u5417\uff1f\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u50cf\u60a8\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u95ee\u9898\u4e0a\u6240\u505a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u7b49\u5230\u6570\u636e\u7ed9\u60a8\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\u518d\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 9\uff1a<\/p>\n
we’re going to be watching all of the data, right? So if, as I mentioned in my remarks, if the labor market were to slow unexpectedly, then we have the ability to react to that by cutting faster. We’re also going to be looking at our other mandate. Though we have greater confidence now that inflation is moving down to 2% but at the same time, our plan is that we will be at 2% over time. So and policy we think is still restrictive, so that should still be happening.<\/p>\n
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I’m just curious as to how sensitive you’ll be to the labor market, since you forecast we are going to see higher unemployment, and it is going to take a significant amount of monetary easing to just maintain it.<\/p>\n
\u8ffd\u95ee\uff1a\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u597d\u5947\u60a8\u5bf9\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u60a8\u9884\u6d4b\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u624d\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n
So you know what I would say is we don’t think we need to see further losing in labor market conditions to get inflation down to 2% but we have a dual mandate. And I think you can take this, this whole action as takes take a step back. What have we been trying to achieve? We’re trying to achieve a situation where we restore price stability without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has come sometimes with disinflation. That’s what we’re trying to do, and I think you can take today’s action as a sign of our strong commitment to achieve that goal.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u60f3\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u770b\u5230\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6076\u5316\u6765\u628a\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u964d\u81f3 2%\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u53cc\u91cd\u4f7f\u547d\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u8fd9\u6574\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u9000\u4e00\u6b65\u601d\u8003\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u5b9e\u73b0\u4ec0\u4e48\u76ee\u6807\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u52aa\u529b\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e00\u79cd\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u5373\u6062\u590d\u4ef7\u683c\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6709\u65f6\u4f34\u968f\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u800c\u6765\u7684\u90a3\u79cd\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u575a\u5b9a\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 10\uff1aYou’re describing this view that you don’t think you’re behind when it comes to the job market. Can you walk us through the specific data points that you found to be most helpful in the discussions at this meeting? You mentioned a couple, but would you be able to walk us through what that dashboard told you as far as what you know about the job market now?<\/p>\n
\u60a8\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5373\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5728\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u65b9\u9762\u5e76\u4e0d\u843d\u540e\u3002\u80fd\u5411\u6211\u4eec\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e00\u4e0b\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5728\u672c\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e2d\u6700\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u6570\u636e\u70b9\u5417\uff1f\u60a8\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u8fd8\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u53bb\u5173\u6ce8\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 10\uff1a<\/p>\n
Sure. So start with unemployment, which is the single most important one. Probably you’re at 4.2% that’s, you know, I know that’s higher than we were. We were used to seeing numbers in the mid and even below mid threes last year. But if you look back over the sweep of the years, that’s a low, that’s a very healthy unemployment rate. And anything in the low fours is, A, really, is a good labor market. So that’s one thing. Participation is at high levels, it’s, you know, we’ve had, we’re right adjusted for demographics, for aging, participation, said, at pretty high levels, that’s a good thing. Wages are still a bit above what would be their wage increases. Rather, are still just a bit above where they would be over the very longer term to be consistent with 2% inflation, but they’re very much coming down to what that sustainable level is. So we feel good about that. Vacancies over per unemployed is back to what is still a very strong level. It’s not as high as it was. That number reached two to one, two vacancies for every unemployed person as measured, it’s now around one, but that’s still, that’s still a very good number. I would say quits have come back down to normal levels. I mean, that could go on and on there.<\/p>\n
\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5931\u4e1a\u7387 4.2% \u6bd4\u53bb\u5e74\u8981\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5728 3% \u7684\u4e2d\u6bb5\u6216\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u56de\u987e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e74\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u4f4e\u3001\u975e\u5e38\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u4f4e\u4e8e 4% \u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u90fd\u8868\u660e\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u51b5\u826f\u597d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u5c31\u4e1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u7387\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u6839\u636e\u4eba\u53e3\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u3001\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u5c31\u4e1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u7387\u5904\u4e8e\u76f8\u5f53\u9ad8\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b\u3002\u5de5\u8d44\u4ecd\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e94\u6709\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u786e\u5207\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ecd\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4e0e 2% \u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5de5\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u9010\u6e10\u964d\u81f3\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6b64\u611f\u5230\u6ee1\u610f\u3002\u6bcf\u540d\u5931\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u7a7a\u7f3a\u804c\u4f4d\u6570\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4ee5\u524d\u90a3\u4e48\u9ad8\u4e86\uff0c\u4ee5\u524d\u8fbe\u5230\u4e8c\u6bd4\u4e00\uff0c\u5373\u6bcf\u540d\u5931\u4e1a\u8005\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e24\u4e2a\u804c\u4f4d\u7a7a\u7f3a\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u5927\u7ea6\u662f\u4e00\u6bd4\u4e00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ecd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u8f9e\u804c\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u56de\u843d\u5230\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e00\u76f4\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n
There are many, many employment indicators. What do they say? They say this is still a solid labor market. The question isn’t the level. The question is that there has been change over, particularly over the last few months, and you know, so what we say is, as the upside risk to inflation have really come down, the downside risk to employment have increased , and because we have been patient and held our fire on cutting wall inflate While inflation has come down. I think we’re now in a very good position to manage the risks to both of our goals.<\/p>\n
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And what do you expect to learn between now and November that will help inform the scale of the cut of the next meeting?<\/p>\n
\u8ffd\u95ee\uff1a\u60a8\u671f\u671b\u4ece\u73b0\u5728\u5230 11 \u6708\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u54ea\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u534f\u52a9\u786e\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u7684\u964d\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\uff1f<\/p>\n
You know, more data. The usual. Don’t look for anything else. We’ll see another labor report. We’ll see another jobs report. I think we get. We actually, we could to, we get a second jobs report on the day of the meeting. I think, no, no, on the Friday before the meeting. So and inflation data we’ll get, we’ll get all this data we’ll be watching. You know, it’s always a question of, look at the incoming data and ask, what are the implications of that data for the evolving outlook and the balance of risks? And then go through our process and think, what’s the right thing to do? Is policy where we want it to be, to foster the achievement of our goals over time. So that’s what it is, and that’s what we’ll be doing.<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 11\uff1awe’ve only been running a little above 100,000 jobs a month on payrolls last three months. Do you view that level of job creation as worrying or alarming, or would you be would you be content if we were to kind of stick at that level? And relatedly, one of the welcome trends over the last couple of years has been labor market steam coming out through job openings, falling rather than job losses. Do you think that trend has further to run? Or do you see risk that further labor market cooling will have to come through job losses?<\/p>\n
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\u56de\u7b54 11\uff1a<\/p>\n
So on the job creation, it depends on the inflows, right? So if you’re having millions of people come into the labor force then, and you’re creating 100,000 jobs, you’re going to see unemployment go up. So it really depends on what’s the trend underlying the volatility of people coming into the country. We understand there’s been quite an influx across the borders, and that has actually been one of the things that’s allowed unemployment rate to rise as and the other thing is just the slower hiring rate, which is something we also watch carefully. So it does depend on what’s happening on the supply side and on the curve.<\/p>\n
\u5c31\u4e1a\u521b\u9020\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4eba\u53e3\u6d41\u5165\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u6570\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u8fdb\u5165\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ea\u521b\u9020\u4e86 10 \u4e07\u4e2a\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6d41\u5165\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u6ce2\u52a8\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u8de8\u5883\u79fb\u6c11\u6d41\u5165\u91cf\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5bfc\u81f4\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u62db\u8058\u901f\u5ea6\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u65b9\u9762\u548c\u4f9b\u9700\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n
So we all felt on the committee, not all, but I think everyone on the committee felt that job openings were so elevated that they could fall a long way before you hit the part of the curve where job openings turned into higher unemployment, job loss. And yes, I mean, I think we are. It’s hard to know that. You can’t know these things with great precision, but certainly it appears that we’re very close to that point, if not at it so that further declines in job openings will translate more directly into into unemployment. But it’s been, it’s been a great ride down. I mean, we’ve seen a lot of of tightness come out of the labor market in that form without it resulting in lower employment.<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 12\uff1aso we’ve heard some speculation that you may be going with the federal funds rate to three and a half, maybe under 4% and there’s basically an entire generation that has experienced zero or near zero federal fund rate as something we’re heading in that direction. Again. What’s the likelihood that cheap money is now the norm?<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u542c\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u731c\u6d4b\uff0c\u79f0\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u964d\u81f3 3.5%\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4f4e\u4e8e 4%\uff0c\u800c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u6574\u6574\u4e00\u4ee3\u4eba\u90fd\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u96f6\u6216\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u671d\u7740\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u524d\u8fdb\u3002\u5ec9\u4ef7\u8d27\u5e01 \/ \u8d85\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u91cd\u65b0\u6210\u4e3a\u5e38\u6001\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 12\uff1a<\/p>\n
So this is a question. You mean, after we get through all of this, it’s just great question that we just we can only speculate about. Intuitively, most many, many people anyway, would say we’re probably not going back to that era where there were trillions of dollars of sovereign bonds trading at negative rates, long term bonds trading at negative rates. And it looked like the neutral rate was might even be negative. So there was people were issuing debt, issuing debt at negative rates. It seems that’s so far away. Now, my own sense is that that we’re not going back to that, but you know, honestly, we’re going to find out. But you know, it feels, it feels to me and that the neutral rate is is probably significantly higher than it was back then. How high is it? I just don’t think we know it’s again, we only know it by its works.<\/p>\n
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One more, how do you respond to the criticism that will likely come that a deeper rate cut now before the election, has some political motivations.<\/p>\n
\u8ffd\u95ee\uff1a\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u60a8\u5982\u4f55\u56de\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6279\u8bc4\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u524d\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e9b\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u673a\uff1f<\/p>\n
Yeah, so, you know, this is my fourth presidential election at the at the Fed, and you know, it’s always the same. We’re always, we’re always going into this meeting in particular and asking, what’s the right thing to do for the people we serve. And we do that, and we make a decision as a group, and then we announce it, and it’s that’s always what it is. It’s never about anything else. Nothing else is discussed. And I would also point out that the things that we do really affect economic conditions for the most part with with a lag. So nonetheless, this is what we do. Our job is to support the economy on behalf of the American people, and if we get it right, this will benefit the American people significantly. So this really concentrates the mind, and it’s something we all take very, very seriously. We don’t put up any other filters. I think if you start doing that, I don’t know where you stop. And so we just want to do that.<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u7ecf\u5386\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u670d\u52a1\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u200b\u200b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e2\u4f53\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u5ba3\u5e03\u5b83\uff0c\u5b83\u603b\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u5b83\u4ece\u4e0d\u6d89\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u6211\u8fd8\u8981\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u786e\u5b9e\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b58\u5728\u6ede\u540e\u6548\u679c\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u4ee3\u8868\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u652f\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u5bf9\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u6781\u5927\u5730\u9020\u798f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u771f\u7684\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u96c6\u4e2d\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u975e\u5e38\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u89c6\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u8bbe\u7f6e\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u8fc7\u6ee4\u5668\u3002\u5426\u5219\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5f00\u59cb\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u4f1a\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u505c\u4e0b\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 13\uff1aMy first question is,very simply, what message are you trying to send American consumers, the American people with this unusually large rate cut?<\/p>\n
\u6211\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6b21\u4e0d\u540c\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u60a8\u60f3\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u4f20\u8fbe\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u606f\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 13\uff1a<\/p>\n
I would just say that, you know, the US economy is in a good place and and our decision today is designed to keep it there. More specifically, the economy is growing at a solid pace. Inflation is coming down closer to our 2% objective over time, and the labor market is is still in solid shape. So our intention is really to maintain the strength that we currently see in the US economy, and we’ll do that by returning rates from their high level, which has really been the purpose of which has been to get inflation under control. We’re going to move those down over time to a more normal level over time,<\/p>\n
\u6211\u53ea\u60f3\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u826f\u597d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u65e8\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u51b5\u3002\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b63\u5728\u7a33\u6b65\u589e\u957f\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\u63a5\u8fd1\u6211\u4eec 2% \u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u4ecd\u7136\u72b6\u51b5\u826f\u597d\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u610f\u56fe\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4fdd\u6301\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u524d\u770b\u5230\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u901a\u8fc7\u628a\u5229\u7387\u4ece\u9ad8\u4f4d\u62c9\u4f4e\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f3\u66f4\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n
just a follow up to that, listening to you talk about inflation moving meaningfully down to 2% is the Federal Reserve effectively declaring a decisive victory over inflation and rising prices.<\/p>\n
\u8ffd\u95ee\uff1a\u542c\u60a8\u8c08\u8bba\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3 2%\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u5bf9\u6297\u901a\u80c0\u548c\u7269\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n
No, we’re not so inflation. You know what we say is we want inflation. The goal is to have inflation move down to 2% on a sustainable basis. And, you know, we’re not really, we’re close, but we’re not really at 2% and I think we’re going to want to see it be, you know, around 2% and close to 2% for some time, but we’re certainly not doing, we’re not we’re not saying mission accomplished or anything like that. But I have to say, though we’re encouraged by the progress that we have made.<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 14\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u60a8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f4f\u623f\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u8fd9\u4e48\u9ad8\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u80fd\u56de\u5230 2% \u76ee\u6807\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 14\uff1a<\/p>\n
Yeah, so housing inflation is the is the one piece that is kind of dragging a bit. If I can say we know that market rents are doing what we would want them to do, which is to be moving up at relatively low levels, but they’re not rolling over that the leases that are rolling over are not coming down as much, and OER is coming in high. So, you know, it’s been slower than we expected. I think we now understand that it’s going to take some time for those lower market rents to get into this. But, you know, the direction of travel is clear, and as long as market rents remain, you know, relatively low inflation over time that will show up just the time it’s taking now, several years, rather than just one or two cycles of of annual lease renewals. So that’s, I think we understand that now, I don’t think the outcome is in doubt again. As long as market rents remain under control, the outcome is not as in doubt. So I would say it’s the rest of the rest of the portfolio, of the elements that go into core, PCE, inflation or have behaved pretty well. You know, they’re all they all have some volatility. We will get down to 2% inflation, I believe, and I believe that ultimately, we’ll get what we need to get out of the housing services piece too, some of your colleagues have experienced concern.<\/p>\n
\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u901a\u80c0\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u70b9\u62d6\u7d2f\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u73b0\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u79df\u91d1\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5b83\u4eec\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7eed\u7ea6\u623f\u5c4b\u7684\u79df\u91d1\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0b\u964d\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\uff0c\u800c OER \u5374\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u6e29\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6bd4\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u671f\u8981\u6162\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u79df\u91d1\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u80fd\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u524d\u8fdb\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u660e\u786e\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5e02\u573a\u79df\u91d1\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u62c9\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u6548\u679c\u5c31\u4f1a\u663e\u73b0\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u51e0\u5e74\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e74\u5ea6\u79df\u7ea6\u7eed\u7b7e\u5468\u671f\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u8d28\u7591\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u6e29\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5e02\u573a\u79df\u91d1\u4fdd\u6301\u53d7\u63a7\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6838\u5fc3 PCE \u901a\u80c0\u7b49\u8868\u73b0\u90fd\u76f8\u5f53\u4e0d\u9519\u3002\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u6027\u3002\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4f1a\u964d\u5230 2%\uff0c\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4ece\u4f4f\u623f\u670d\u52a1\u90e8\u5206\u83b7\u5f97\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n
It’s hard to gain that out. The housing market is in part frozen because of lock in with low rates. People don’t want to sell their homes, so because they have a very low mortgage to be quite expensive to refinance. As rates come down, people will start to move more, and that’s probably beginning to happen already. But remember, when that happens, you’ve got a you’ve got a seller, but you’ve also got a new buyer, in many cases. So it’s not, you know, obvious how much additional demand that would make me the real issue with housing is that we have had and are on track to continue to have not enough housing. And so it’s going to be challenging. It’s hard to find to zone lots that are in places where people want to live. It’s all of the aspects of housing are more and more difficult. And you know, where are we going to get the supply? And this is not something that the Fed can can really fix, but I think as we normalize rates, you’ll see the housing market normalize. And I mean ultimately, by getting inflation broadly down and getting those rates normalized and getting the housing housing cycle normalized, that’s the best thing we can do for householders. And then the supply question will have to be dealt with by the market and also by government.<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 15\uff1aJust following up on some of the labor market talk earlier. You know, monetary policy operates with long and variable lags, and I’m wondering how much you see being able to keep the unemployment rate from rate right raising too much comes from the fact that you’re starting to act now, and that’s going to give people more room to run, versus just the labor market is strong. And then also, if I could following up on next question, do you see today’s 50 basis point move as partially a response to the fact that you didn’t cut in July, and that sort of gets you to the same place.<\/p>\n
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\u56de\u7b54 15\uff1a<\/p>\n
So you’re right about lags, but I would just point to the overall economy. You have an economy that is growing at a at a solid pace. If you look at forecasters or talk to companies, they’ll say that they think 2025 should be a good year too. So there’s no sense in the US economy. Basically fine, if you talk to market participants. I mean, I mean, you know, business people who are actually out there doing business. So I think, you know, I think we, I think our move is timely. I do. And as I said, you can, you can see our, our our 50 basis point move as as a commitment to make sure that we don’t fall behind. So you’re really asking about your second question. You’re asking about July. And I guess if you, if you ask, you know, if we gotten the July report before the meeting, would we have cut we might well of we didn’t make that decision, but you know that we might well have, I think that’s not, you know, that doesn’t really answer the question that we ask ourselves, which is, let’s look, you know, when at this meeting, we’re looking back to the July employment report, the August employment report, the two CPI reports, one of which came, of course, during blackout, and all the other things that I mentioned, we’re looking at all of those things and we’re asking ourselves, what’s the right what’s our what’s the policy stance we need to move to? We knew it’s clear that we clearly, literally everyone on the committee agreed that it’s time to move. It’s just how big, how fast you go, and what do you think about the pass forward? So this decision we made today had broad support on the committee, and I’ve discussed the path ahead. Elizabeth,<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 16\uff1amortgage rates have already been dropping in anticipation of this announcement. How much more should borrowers expect those rates to drop over the next year?<\/p>\n
\u6309\u63ed\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u9884\u671f\u964d\u606f\u65f6\u5c31\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u660e\u5e74\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5229\u7387\u8fd8\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 16\uff1a<\/p>\n
Very hard for me to say that’s from our standpoint. I can, I can’t really speak the mortgage rates. I will say, you know, that will depend on on how the economy evolves. Our our intention, though, is we think that our policy was appropriately restrictive. We think that it’s time to begin the process of recalibrating it to a level that’s more neutral, rather than restricted. We expect that process to take some time, as you can see in the projections that we released today, and as if things work out according to that forecast, other rates in the economy will come down as well. However, the rate at which those things happen will really depend on how the economy performs. We can’t see, we can’t look a year ahead and know what the economy is to be doing.<\/p>\n
\u4ece\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u5f88\u96be\u8bf4\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u8c08\u8bba\u62b5\u62bc\u8d37\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u3002\u6211\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u610f\u56fe\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u6709\u9650\u5236\u6027\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u65f6\u5019\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u5176\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u5230\u66f4\u4e2d\u6027\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7ef4\u6301\u9650\u5236\u6027\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e9b\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4f60\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u60c5\u6309\u7167\u9884\u6d4b\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e2d\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u5229\u7387\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u5c55\u671b\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n
What’s your message to households who are frustrated that home prices have still stayed so high as rates have been high? What do you say to those households?<\/p>\n
\u8ffd\u95ee\uff1a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u56e0\u4e3a\u5229\u7387\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u800c\u623f\u4ef7\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u60a8\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bdd\u8981\u8bf4\uff1f<\/p>\n
Well, I can what I can say to the public is that we had the highest we had a burst of inflation.Many other countries around the world had had a similar burst of inflation. And when that happens, part of the answer is that we raise interest rates in order to cool the economy off in order to reduce inflationary pressures. It’s not something that people experience as pleasant, but at the end, what you get is low inflation restored. Price stability, restored. And a good definition of price stability is that people in their daily decisions, they’re not thinking about inflation anymore. That’s where everyone wants to be, is back to what’s inflation, you know, just keep it low, keep it stable. We’re restoring that. So what we’re going through now, really, it restores it will benefit people over a long period of time. Price stability benefits everybody over a long period of time, just by virtue of the fact that they don’t have to deal with inflation. So that’s what’s been going on. And I think we’ve made real progress. I completely we don’t tell people how to think about the economy, of course, and of course, people are experiencing high prices, as opposed to high inflation, and we understand that’s painful.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8bc9\u516c\u4f17\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u89e3\u51b3\u529e\u6cd5\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u51b7\u5374\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u6109\u5feb\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u662f\u6062\u590d\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u3002\u6062\u590d\u4ef7\u683c\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u5b9a\u4e49\u662f\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u4e0d\u518d\u8003\u8651\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4fdd\u6301\u901a\u80c0\u5728\u4f4e\u4f4d\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u6062\u590d\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\uff0c\u771f\u7684\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u8fd9\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u5c06\u5728\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u53d7\u76ca\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5728\u5f88\u957f\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u4f7f\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u53d7\u76ca\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u5fc5\u5e94\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u6211\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u4f1a\u544a\u8bc9\u4eba\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u9ad8\u7269\u4ef7\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u662f\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 17\uff1aI was wondering if you could go through you said just at the beginning that coming into the blackout, there was like an open thought of 25 or 50. You know, the fact that we’re either 25 or 50, I would sort of argue that when we had those two last speeches by Governor Waller and New York President John Williams, that they were, they were sort of saying that maybe a gradual approach was going to win the day. I mean, I sort of want to ask a seven part question about this. But I mean, could you talk, would you have cut rates by 50 basis points if the market had been pricing in, like, low odds of a 50 point move, like they were last Wednesday. You know, after the CPI number came out, there’s a really small probability of a 50 point cut. Does it play playing your consideration at all.<\/p>\n
\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u521a\u8fdb\u5165\u516c\u5f00\u8bb2\u8bdd\u7684\u9759\u9ed8\u671f\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8e\u964d\u606f 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u8fd8\u662f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u6301\u5f00\u653e\u6001\u5ea6\u3002\u7406\u4e8b\u6c83\u52d2\u548c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u5a01\u5ec9\u59c6\u65af\u7684\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e5f\u8bf4\u6e10\u8fdb\u5f0f\u964d\u606f\u4f1a\u5360\u4e0a\u98ce\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u606f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u60a8\u8fd9\u6b21\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\u5417\uff1f\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u62bc\u6ce8\u662f\u5426\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 17\uff1a<\/p>\n
Thank you. We’re always going to try to do what we think is the right thing for the economy at that time. That’s what we’ll do, and that’s what we did today.<\/p>\n
\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u4f1a\u5c3d\u529b\u505a\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5bf9\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u5229\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u5929\u6240\u505a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 18\uff1ayou’ve mentioned how closely you’re watching the labor market, but you also noted that payroll numbers have been a little bit less reliable lately because of the big downward revisions. Does that put your focus overwhelmingly on the unemployment rate? And given the SEP projection of 4.4 basically being the peak in the cycle, would going above that be the kind of thing that would trigger another 50 basis point cut.<\/p>\n
\u60a8\u63d0\u5230\u8fc7\u60a8\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4f46\u60a8\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u906d\u9047\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u4fee\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u6709\u6240\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740\u60a8\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0a\uff1f\u9274\u4e8e SEP \u9884\u6d4b\u7684 4.4% \u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u6c34\u5e73\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u53e6\u4e00\u6b21 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 18\uff1a<\/p>\n
So we will continue to look at that broad array of labor market data, including the payroll numbers. We’re not discarding those. I mean, we’ll certainly look at those, but we will mentally tend to adjust them based on the Q, C, E, W adjustment, which you referred to. There isn’t a bright line, you know, it will be the light that the unemployment rate’s very important, of course, but there isn’t a single statistic or a single bright line over which that thing that might move, that would dictate one thing or another. We’ll look at each meeting, we’ll look at all the data on inflation, economic activity and the labor market, and we’ll make decisions about is our policy stance where it needs to be to, you know, to foster over the medium term, our mandate goals. Yeah, so I can’t, I can’t say we, we have a bright line in mind.<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 19\uff1aI know that you discussed earlier how the Fed does whatever the right thing is and nothing else factors in. But in general, can you talk about whether or not you believe a sitting US president should have a say in fed decisions on interest rates? Because that’s something that former President Trump, who obviously points of view, has previously, suggested, and I know the Fed is designed to be independent, but why can you tell the public why you view that so important?<\/p>\n
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\u56de\u7b54 19\uff1a<\/p>\n
Sure, so countries that are democracies around the world, countries that are sort of like the United States, all have what are called independent central banks. And the reason is that that people have found, over time, that insulating the central bank from direct control by political authorities avoids making monetary policy in a way that that favors, maybe people who are in office as opposed to people who are not in office. So that that’s, that’s the idea, is that, you know, I think the data are clear that countries that have independent central banks, they get lower inflation. And so we’re, you know, we’re not, we do our work to serve all Americans. We’re not serving any politician, any political figure, any cause, any issue, nothing. It’s just maximum employment and price stability on behalf of all Americans, and that’s how the other central banks are set up to it. It’s a good institutional arrangement which has been good for the public, and I hope and strongly, strongly believe that it will. You know, continue.<\/p>\n
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\u95ee\u9898 20\uff1aa couple regulatory developments in the past week that I want to ask you about. First last week, Vice Chair for supervision, Michael Barr outlined his views for the changes to the Basel three end game. I’m wondering if you are in line with him on those changes should be if those have support the board in a broad way that you’re looking for, and if you think the other agencies are also fully on board with that approach<\/p>\n
\u6211\u60f3\u95ee\u60a8\u5173\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5468\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u76d1\u7ba1\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8d1f\u8d23\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d Michael Barr \u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u4ed6\u5bf9\u5df4\u585e\u5c14\u534f\u8bae\u4e09\u76d1\u7ba1\u89c4\u5219\u53d8\u66f4\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u60a8\u662f\u5426\u540c\u610f\u4ed6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5176\u4ed6\u673a\u6784\u4e5f\u5b8c\u5168\u652f\u6301\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u56de\u7b54 20\uff1a<\/p>\n
So the answer to your question is that, yes, those those changes were negotiated between the agencies with my support and with my involvement, with the idea that we were going to re propose, we propose the changes that we, that Vice Chair Barr talked about, and then take comment on them. So yes, that that is, you know, that’s happening with my support. That’s not a final proposal, though. You understand, we’re putting them out for comment. We’re going to take comment and make appropriate changes that we don’t have a, we don’t have a calendar date for that. And as for the other agencies, you know, the idea is that we’re all moving together. We’re not moving separately. So that I don’t, I don’t know exactly where that is, but the idea is that we will move as a group to put this again out for comment, and then, you know, it’ll, it’ll come the comments will come back 60 days later, and we’ll dive into them, and we’ll try to bring this to a conclusion sometime in the first half of next year.<\/p>\n
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Then yesterday, there were merger reform finalizations from the other bank regulators. What does that have to do to align itself on merger?<\/p>\n
\u8ffd\u95ee\uff1a\u6628\u5929\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u94f6\u884c\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u4e5f\u6572\u5b9a\u4e86\u5408\u5e76\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u5408\u5e76\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/p>\n
You know, I would, I would bounce that question to Vice Chair Barr. It’s a good question, but I don’t have that today. Thanks Jennifer for the last question.<\/p>\n
\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u8f6c\u4ea4\u7ed9\u5df4\u5c14\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eca\u5929\u6ca1\u6709\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n
\u95ee\u9898 21\uff1ayou said earlier that the decision today reflects with appropriate recalibration, strength in the labor market that can be maintained in the context of moderate growth, even though the policy statement says you view the risks to inflation and job growth as roughly balanced, given what you’ve said. Though today, I’m curious, are you more worried about the job market and growth than inflation? Are they not roughly balanced?<\/p>\n
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\u56de\u7b54 21\uff1a<\/p>\n
No, I think, I think, and we think they are now roughly balanced. So if you go back for a long time, the risks were on inflation. We had historically tight labor market, historically tight. There was a severe labor shortage, so very, very hot labor market, and we had inflation way above target. So you know that said to us, concentrate on inflation. Concentrate on inflation. And we did for a while, and we and we kept at that, that the stance that we put in place 14 months ago was a stance that was focused on bringing down inflation. Part of bringing down inflation, though, is is cooling off the economy, and a little bit cooling off the labor market. You now have a cooler labor market, in part because of of our activity. So what that tells you is it’s time to change our stance. So we did that. The sense of the change in the stance is that we’re recalibrating our policy over time to a stance that will be more neutral. And today was we, I think we made a good, strong start on that. I think it was the right decision, and I think it should send a signal that we, you know, that we’re committed to coming up with a good outcome here,<\/p>\n
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to a shock now that could tip it into recession?<\/p>\n
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I don’t think so. I don’t there’s as I look, well, let me look at it this way. I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a recession, sorry, of a downturn is elevated. I Okay I don’t see that, you see you see growth at a solid rate. You see inflation coming down and you see a labor market that’s still at very solid levels. It’s so, so I don’t really see that now.<\/p>\n
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